Saturday, January 30, 2010

iPad is Not a Toy. You Do the Math

Apple released iPad. Not too much surprise. It is a tablet and it is a lot like what the rumors said. Did I expect too much? Yes. Am I disappointed by iPad? Not really. Do I lose faith in iPad? Absolutely no! iPad is a great product. It is not just a big iPhone. It is not just a toy. It started changing how a computer should work for most of the things we use computers for.

During his presentation, Steve Jobs clearly defined the market of iPad - it is a "third category" mobile device between smart phones and laptops. This definition again brings back the question that everybody asked before - why do we need a third category mobile device? As for Steve Jobs' answer, the reason is that we need to do "key things" in a "far better" way. I totally buy this rationale. We really need this "third category". It covers the most important tasks, including reading emails, browsing the Web, listening to musics, watching videos, playing games and reading ebooks. It also covers a lot of scenarios where the first two categories are not good enough. These scenarios add up to a significant amount of time of using a computer. All these boil down to a simple math problem:


The reality is that "A" is becoming bigger and bigger and "C" is becoming smaller and smaller. Obviously, this leads to a more and more significant difference. So do the math, then you will realize that iPad is not just a toy, it is a serious and useful device for everybody.

One could certainly argue that even if the difference becomes bigger, I can still use either a smart phone or a laptop to cover it. Yes, of course you can, but iPad just makes it far better than a smart phone or a laptop. It is fast. It is convenient. It has a new human-computer interface, which matters the most.

The keyboard-mouse-monitor interface has not changed for decades. It has been working pretty well, but it is certainly not the ideal one. What iPad provides is a much better interface. In my opinion, the human-computer interface should be as similar as possible to what we do things in the real world, meanwhile leverage computing power to help us do things better. Take the photo app on iPad as an example. It makes photo piles and lets the user to spread/stack up a pile of photos. It is better than how iPhoto works. It is more natural and fun. In the meantime, it helps people share photos, make photo books, organize photos by tags, geographic information, faces and such, which traditional photo albums can not do. This is how a computer should work.

Many people think iPad is a content consumer. I don't think it is true. It is brilliant for Apple to port iWork to iPad, which makes iPad much more than a content consumer. iWork significantly enlarges the use case space of iPad. For example, think about high school students, or even college students. They can use iPad to take notes, read text books, write reports and make presentations. How cool is that?

Is iPad good enough for everything? One can easily come up with thousands of things that iPad can not do. It's true. I can come up with thousands of things that a laptop, or even a desktop can not do as well. Does it prevent me from buying a laptop instead of a super computer? No. Because a laptop is good enough for most tasks. The just unveiled iPad is not intended to replace everything. But for average computer users, it does most of their tasks in a much better way. As for the next generation, or the generation after... I think iPad will become the first thing to think about when somebody needs to buy a computer.

Thirty years ago, nobody could imagine that a computer can be put on a desk, until Apple released Apple II and soon IBM released 5150. Ten years ago, nobody believed that a laptop could be as powerful as a desktop. Today, most of my friends have only a laptop and a big monitor at home. It is way too early to conclude that iPad, tablets in general, won't be the next  mainstream personal computing device. Give it time, things will change. iPad has no doubt just started this change now.

11 comments:

tony said...

We'd had a discussion about this over the past few days. It will be interesting to see where they go with it. But, the conclusion is that the iPad is not targeted at us.

There are other people who use computers less extensively than computer scientists. There are people who only use it for email and web-surfing. OS X very well could be overkill. At a $500-$800 price point, it seems reasonable to expect them to buy in.

I hope it pans out, because I can see some excellent uses of a touch screen if it were only integrated with a full laptop/desktop. It just needs to hold on so long.

Xiao Ma said...

Tony, I agree with you. People like us, who spend a big amount of time in the "C" category, will still need a laptop. But I think you would agree that when we are not writing papers or programs, it would be really nice to have an iPad to spend some leisure time. It just depends on whether you want to pay $500-$800 for it :-)

Unknown said...

Well made points! I agree with your methodology however to be perfect honest, stealing the OS from iPhone and only making it bigger is the last thing i would do. I can potentially lose customer from both side....

Tristan said...

I think iPad itself is not that novel. But the bigger screen allows you put all your fingers on it, which may introduce revolutionary changes in the human computer interface.

Q.B. Zhu said...

I still have the faith in Apple, but iPad is quite a disappointment.

With iPhone and MacBook, I pretty much can do everything I want. BTW, the kindle application for Mac is coming soon (the kindle for PC is already here). So what's new in iPad?

Who are iPad's target customers? I am not sure. I am definitely not. Maybe my mom? The pitch would be a computer without installation and maintenance hassles. Let me ask.

Xiao Ma said...

David, I would say iPhone is the "pre-version" of iPad :-) Besides, iPhone has its very unique, irreplaceable advantage - its size.

Xiao Ma said...

Tristan, indeed, a large touch screen is not novel technology, but how to use it is. As you said, iPad leads the revolution of changing the human-computer interface.

Xiao Ma said...

Q.B., yes, you can do everything with your iPhone and Macbook, but you will still need this "third category" device to do a lot of things in a better way. I don't think you can argue that iPad does not provide batter user experience than iPhone/Macbook for "key things". What you could argue is whether you want to pay $500-$800 for it.

Using Kindle app on MacBook will never be as good as using Kindle app on Kindle. A laptop is just not the device for reading. So if you want to have good reading experience, choose from Kindle or iPad.

You like cool technology, you pursue better user experience, so I think you are iPad's targeted user. :)

Q.B. Zhu said...

I bought the first generation of iPhone as I am instantly convinced it is revolutionary.

I am very skeptical about iPad now, in particular the better user experiences part. For me, the e-reader is the killer application for which the user experience has to be good. Maybe you can buy one and let me feel it.:-)

Xiao Ma said...

If a good e-reader is what you care the most, forget about the Kindle app on PC/Mac, just buy a Kindle or an iPad. But keep it in mind that with an iPad you get much more than an e-reader.

I do not doubt that iPad is great. The only thing that will stop me from buying it right now is the price.

Unknown said...

I also believe that Apple's strength is design and user experience -- that explains why I expected too much. Two years ago when I was shopping for my tablet, I dreamed about an Apple tablet. It has to be something more than a slate, more than a touch screen. Even now, two years later, I still don’t know what it should look like. But iPad does not *look* like what I dreamed. Maybe after I actually use it for a while (size, weight, interface, … things that have to be experienced), I will change my mind.