Just like many other products, two fundamental keys of Apple Tablet are the price and the market. The biggest market problem of Apple Tablet is that it more or less overlaps with existing Apple product lines. The first question people will ask themselves is that if I already have a desktop and a smartphone, maybe also a laptop, why should I buy a tablet? When and where will I use it? Will it be very useful or just sort of useful? What price would I accept to buy a widget that is "sort of useful" or even just a fancy expensive toy? These are all valid questions. So what should we expect from Apple Tablet? Before we think about what to expect, let's start with what not to expect.
Apple Tablet will not be a traditional browser-only netbook. First of all, Apple's strength is not making Web browsers, although Safari is great. Apple's strength is design and user experience. So there must be awesome client applications besides a Web browser. Second of all, 99.99% of the current web sites are not touch-screen friendly. They are not designed for touch screens at all. Even in the future, I don't think websites can easily provide as good user experience as client applications can (note that I did not say desktop applications). I always prefer client applications even if most of the storage and computation is thrown to the cloud, with only a few exceptions of Google's great products, namely Gmail and Google Reader.
Apple Tablet will not be an e-reader. This is not only because Steve Jobs said "people don't read anymore", it just does not make sense for Apple to make a dedicated reading device, because it will need to make another device to provide more later. Kindle is a great innovation and I have been hesitating between buy or not buy a kindle for a long long time. But what Kindle can do is just a small part of personal computing. Maybe Apple Tablet will not be as good as Kindle in terms of reading book, but it will be a reasonable e-reader plus a lot more.
Apple Tablet will not be a Macbook with a touch screen. Apple Tablet will be smaller, lighter and may provide less computing power. It will be easier to carry around. Maybe not much easier than Macbook, but let me give you one scenario for instance: using Macbook when you were in the restroom is awkward, but Apple Tablet will fit nicely. Apple Tablet will also be easier to use, and most importantly, thanks to new possibilities in interface design, it will be more fun!
What should we expect then? In my guess, Apple Tablet will be a revolution that changes the way how mainstream people use computers, including both desktops and laptops. Fortunately, Apple is a company that is capable to do such a thing.
I drew a picture of four main products lines in Apple. iPhone is irreplaceable, because it is the only one you can carry with you all the time. Apple Tablet is under "Fit In Pocket", together with Macbook and iMac, but it is way portable than iMac and better than Macbook. Apple Tablet is just cross the "Enough For Most User" line, which makes it capable to say no to both Macbook and iMac.
John Gruber thought Apple Tablet will be a kind of a replacement of Macbook. When people want to by a portable device from Apple, they will consider either a Macbook or an Apple Tablet, but not likely to get both. I agree with him, but I think Apple Tablet is more ambitious than this - most people will only need an Apple Tablet, maybe plus an iPhone.
First of all, why must we have a desktop and a laptop? For most people, the border between desktops and laptops is vague and there is no need to have both, because the mobile hardware is so advanced and more and more computation and storage is being moved to the cloud. You can store your documents on the cloud, your pictures, and even your musics and videos - remember that Apple has the best online streaming service for movies, TV shows and it recently acquired Lala to stream musics. So in my opinion, the next generation of personal computing should be always portable, even in a house, I want to move my computer wherever I want. High-performance desktop will be only needed for people who want to edit a movie or something.
Why must we use a keyboard and a mouse to talk with the computer? I feel sorry that my mom has to struggle with typing when she starts using computers. There must be some ways that are more natural and easier to interact with computers. This is actually the most exciting thing I would expect from Apple Tablet - a phenomenal brand new user interface. Imagine you could dance your finger on the screen to organize your pictures and emails. Imagine you could make a picture by "drawing" them with your hands. Imagine when you read a book, you could flip a page by sliding your figures on its corner, you could highlight/circle the interesting part by move your finger across them and you could write down your comments and even draw a sketch. Now this comes to what Apple is good at. Trust me, it will change everything.
Ok, talking the keyboard, a really big topic. Not sure if Apple Tablet will have a real keyboard, probably not. If there will be only an on-screen keyboard, I think Apple will make it resizable, so it can fit hands in different sizes. You can also move it to any place on the screen. Once you settle down at home, you can use a wireless keyboard or mouse if you want to. I think this would be enough, except for people who needs to type a lot a lot, like programmers or writers.
Talking about the screen. It will be multi-touch, no doubt. I hope it will be pressure-sensitive as well. In terms of size, 10 inches is the most accepted speculation. I don't care the size that much, since it won't fit into my pocket anyway. Kindle is too small to me. 10 inches is a nice size for reading, at least to me. One big question is how it will make reading books easier. People will definitely expect to use it for reading. I have tons of PDF books and I hate to read them on my laptop. Pixel Qi's multi-purpose screen seems to be a really good idea.
As for network, will Apple Tablet have only WiFi or support 3G, iPhone-like 3G or Kindle-like 3G? If it supports wireless data plan, it must be optional, and probably more expensive than the iPhone plan. I highly doubt it though. AT&T is already struggling to support iPhone users. With Apple Tablet, it's like Hulu@iPhone, I don't think any providers will want to run that risk. How about peripherals? What if you really need a real keyboard and mouse, or a big screen monitor, or a printer? It's easy, you can plug the tablet into a station and most stuff won't even need a cable.
Finally, the price. Price, to be more specific, low price, is very important if Apple wants massive success of the new device. This goes back to the two keys I mentioned in the beginning, market and price. I want to use the "vitamin v.s. pain killer" metaphor, which my advisor often uses to judge research papers. If the product is a "pain killer", high price may be acceptable. But if it is just "vitamin", well, I won't buy it if it is too expensive. Although I believe Apple Tablet will be capable let most people just have one device, the reality is that many people already have laptops and/or desktops. To convince them to switch, the price should make them happy.
Enough is enough. I vividly remember the Macworld 2007 Keynote by Steve Jobs where he introduced iPhone, which absolutely redefined the smartphone industry. Apple Tablet will redefine the game again: personal computing should be like this. I can't wait to see it, can you?
Updates:
Jan. 18th: Apple issues invitation to a media event on the 27th.
Because of the colorful splatter paint in the post, people start thinking the new device will focus on art creating. Did I expect too much?
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